Renaissance Realty Group’s Blog: Georgia: Lawrenceville

This report lead one to think it is more real than o=anyine want to let out of the bag.

RBS says 2.7 million more distressed sales in pipeline

 Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) economists say that recent months of nascent housing recovery remain overshadowed by the delinquency pipeline that threatens to put as many as 2.7m distressed sales on the market in the US.  Given the lag time between a start and a completion, homebuilders and new home buyers probably had to act by July in order to feel confident that they would be able to claim the credit, said RBS chief economist Stephen Stanley, explaining the surge in sales earlier this year.  So, a portion of the increase in both starts and sales in recent months likely reflected activity being pulled forward into the summer.  According to the report, resales are likely to be soft in coming months if the tax credit expires and is not extended as some industry groups are calling for Congress to do.  The inventory of existing homes held at 3.622m in August, 21% below the 4.575m peak in July 08. The dip may be due to various foreclosure moratoria as well as  a delay in the process of foreclosed properties to reaching the market, RBS said. The typical foreclosure timeline is doubled in some cases from 12 months to 24 months.  A housing market that is just beginning to climb from the ashes would be unable to handle influx of nearly 3 million additional homes for sale all at once, RBS economists said.

The Obama administration announced another initiative to aid state and local housing finance agencies in providing mortgages to first-time and lower-income homebuyers and to assist in the development or rehabilitation of rental properties.  Officials declined to put a price tag on the program, but said there would be no cost to taxpayers. Under the initiative, the Treasury Department, along with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will purchase housing bonds issued by the finance agencies.  This will give the groups the funding needed to make new loans.  The government will also provide a temporary credit program to allow the agencies to refinance their existing bonds to more favorable terms.  Agencies will pay fees to participate in the program, which officials say will cover its cost. They are still working with the agencies to determine the extent of support needed. the initiative could cost  as much as $35 billion.  Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner explains:  "This initiative is critical to helping working families maintain access to affordable rental housing and homeownership in tough economic times." 

Housing starts lower than expected

 The Commerce Department announced today that Housing starts increased to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 590,000 last month, up 0.5% above a revised 587,000 in October, but down 28.2% from September 2008, and less than the 610,000 forecast by Briefing.com.  New construction of single-family homes, the key sector of the housing market, increased 3.9% to an annual rate of 501,000 versus 482,000 in August. Starts fell by 1.7% in both the South and the West, and new home construction was flat in the Northeast at 62,000 units, and in the Midwest at 100,000 units. Multi-family homes increased despite the overall housing starts drop, and new construction of buildings with 5 or more units increased to an annual rate of 104,000, up 7.2% from 97,000 in August.  Applications for building permits also missed predictions; permit applications fell 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 573,000. Economists had expected permits to rise to 595,000.

Housing: How Strong a Recovery? 

 The U.S. housing slump is levelling off, but whether it grows into a lasting recovery will depend on how heavily the housing market is leaning on the government's crutches, and how long Washington is willing to keep those supports in place.  Barclays Capital economist Michelle Meyer puts it this way:  The debate has shifted from 'Is the housing market recovering?' to "How strong will the recovery be?"  Despite the recent reassuring signs, Barclays still expects the S&P Case-Shiller home price gauge to drop another 8 percent through the first quarter of 2010, bringing the total decline to 36 percent since the housing market peaked.  Between the quasi-nationalization of housing finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Federal Reserve's $1.45 trillion commitment to buy mortgage-related assets, and an $8,000 tax credit offered to entice first-time home buyers, the amount of public money propping up housing is massive. Three reports due this week are likely to sh  ow these efforts are helping to reduce the glut of unsold homes and restore at least some confidence: The National Association of Home Builders releases its U.S. housing market index, and its expected to be better; figures on September housing starts and building permits are expected to inch up; and existing home sales for September is also expected to be up a bit.

$8000 Tax Credit extension likely?

CNBC insider reports maybe YES

 Diana Olick, CNBCs Real Estate Reporter, thinks the administration is going to extend the $8000 Home Buyers Credit.  I was on the fence for a while as to whether Congress would extend the $8000 first time home buyer tax credit and whether the Administration would stand behind that, but I'm getting some clues that have pushed me over the side, Olick says.  I think it may happen.  She names a couple of insiders who deflected her questions about an extension, but cites Secretary Geithner as saying, We're not going to make the mistake many countries made in the past of putting the brakes on too early and creating risk that we have a, you know, weaker recovery with even higher levels of unemployment going forward.  And Geithner again:  [we are] looking at a set of programs like unemployment insurance, other sets of things that have--that are set to expire. And there's a good case for extending them. And I think a lot of support fundamentally for doing

  it.  Olick also cites a report by the Joint Committee on Taxation on extending and even broadening the credit that Capital's Washington Research Group says, "strongly suggests that a mere extension of the program will be much less and refutes whispers in Washington that an extension alone could cost more than $15 billion.

No to Interest-Only Mods

 The Mortgage Investors Coalition, a trade group of asset managers holding more than $100bn in residential mortgage-backed securitizations (RMBS) on behalf of pension funds, college endowments, and other investors, is calling on the Treasury Department to reject a proposal to offer distressed borrowers interest-only payments for a certain length of time as part of the terms of a Making Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) workout.  The coalition said the proposal fails to address the issue of negative equity, and that it is not in the best interest of the housing industry and consumers.  Modifying homeowners into mortgages that have future payment increases and adjustable interest rates will not improve a homeowners situation, said Micah Green, a partner at Patton Boggs and coalition spokesman. Doing so would ignore the fact that many of these homeowners are already in interest-only or other non-traditional mortgages and owe more on their mortgage than their  home is currently worth

Municipal general election to be held at the Lawrenceville City Hall, 70 South Clayton Street, Lawrenceville, Georgia, on Tuesday, November 3, 2009, to elect two members of the City Council. The poll will be open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. The posts for this election are currently occupied by Councilmembers Robert Clark and Peter "P.K." Martin, IV.

Those residents desiring to vote in the election who are not now registered as a qualified voter must register to vote no later than the close of business on October 5, 2009.

JUST VOTE

JUST VOTE

JUST VOTE

JUST VOTE

The country is going through a house selling boom at the bottom.  Nationally, home prices are down 31% from the 2006 peak, and lots of the sales are foreclosures, although just about anything that's moving is cheap.  A lot of the investing action around the country is in lower-end homes, which have a ready market of renters and are often priced low enough to be purchased for cash.  The activity is centered primarily in fading manufacturing hubs like Detroit and Cleveland, and famous bubble cities like Miami, Phoenix, and Sacramento, but investors are sniffing around for cut-rate deals just about everywhere from Memphis to Philadelphia.

Average Sold Home Prices in the greater Gwinnett are for August were $187,542

Mortgage rates up

 Two weekly surveys this week reported a rise in mortgage rates, ending a nearly six-week run of steady or declining rates in the Freddie Mac weekly survey.  Freddie Macs weekly survey of agency-purchased loans put the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) stayed below 5% but increased 5bps to 4.92% with a 0.7 point for the week ending October 15. Last year, the 30-year FRM was 6.46%.  The 15-year FRM rate was 4.37% with a 0.7 point in the Freddie Mac survey, up from 4.33% last week, but down from a year ago when it was 6.14%.  Bankrate.coms index, which tracks large US banks and thrifts, put the 30-year FRM at 5.32% with a 0.34 point, up 10bps from the week prior.  Bankrate.com put the 15-year FRM at 4.7%, up 10bps.  The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.38% with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it was 4.35%. A year ago, it was 6.14%. The one-year ARM averaged 4.6% with an average 0.5 point, up from 4.53% last week.

Foreclosures up

 Since government intervention began in September 2008, foreclosure sales remain stunted, dropping 8.6% from the previous month and 40.6% from a year ago. But the percentage of foreclosures sold to third parties, who are usually investors, grew by 215% from last year and 3.27% from August, according to ForeclosureRadars monthly foreclosure report.  Arizona leads all states with an increase of filings by 36.1% in September, followed by Florida (29.6%), Texas (24.3%), and Michigan (18.22%).  Filings in California increased only 1.08% in September, but the volume has grown by 123% from last year. 

 Urban areas were hit hardest and spurred the increases.  In Arizona, the statewide increase was fueled by a massive 81.3% increase in Phoenix foreclosures.  Foreclosures in Las Vegas jumped 47.4%; Atlanta had a 39.9% increase; Chicagos rates climbed 36.2%; and Houston had a 33.2% spike in foreclosures, according to ForeclosureListings.com.  RealtyTrac says foreclosure filings in Q309 increased to a level unseen since it began reporting the figures in January of 2005.